Durbin Second-Order Effects

Oliver Wyman Article Series Published by Celent
June 20, 2011
North America

Abstract

The Dodd-Frank Act and new debit card interchange regulations will have as profound an impact on other actors in the payments ecosystem as it does on debit issuers. The new Oliver Wyman article series explores such second order effects.

Most of the commentary on the recently announced Durbin regulations has focused on the direct loss of debit interchange revenue. This will be very significant. However, by reshuffling the relative costs between debit, credit and alternative payments, Durbin will have as profound an impact on other actors in the pay- ments ecosystem as it does on debit issuers. Oliver Wyman has issued a new article series, Durbin Second-Order Effects, to illuminate the impact of the regulations on these other parties.

There are six articles in the series, available to download for Celent clients. The articles explore the regulation effects on:

1. Credit card issuers

2. Merchant acquiring

3. Networks

4. Contactless and mobile payments

5. Internet payments

6. Payments innovation

For example, in the first article on credit cards, Oliver Wyman assert that the new rules create very strong incentives for merchants to select against credit cards and expect credit card interchange revenues to go down as well. Similarly, Oliver Wyman expect that the regulations will eliminate incentives for almost all new payment methods as the $0.12 cap creates a price ceiling under which most alternative methods can’t generate an adequate return.

So, does Durbin kill off payments innovation entirely? “No, but it will channel innovation into ideas that help merchants increase sales, namely leveraging information about customer behavior through their payments and encouraging loyalty,” says Andrew Dresner, an Oliver Wyman partner and author of the report. “This is the new battleground for payments innovation and where the smart money will head.”

Each article in the series is five to six pages long.

Celent is a research and advisory firm dedicated to helping financial institutions formulate comprehensive business and technology strategies. Celent publishes reports identifying trends and best practices in financial services technology and conducts consulting engagements for financial institutions looking to use technology to enhance existing business processes or launch new business strategies. With a team of internationally based analysts, Celent is uniquely positioned to offer strategic advice and market insights on a global basis. Celent is a member of the Oliver Wyman Group, which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies [NYSE: MMC].

Media Contacts

North America
Michele Pace
mpace@celent.com
Tel: +1 212 345 1366

Europe (London)
Chris Williams
cwilliams@celent.com
Tel: +44 (0)782 448 3336

Asia (Tokyo)
Yumi Nagaoka
ynagaoka@celent.com
Tel.: +81 3 3500 3023

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